Blackjack Odds Losing 10 Hands Row

Out of those 100 times, the dealer had a blackjack 8 times. I did have a blackjack twice. The two times that I got a blackjack, the dealer also got a blackjack. Out of the 100 plays, the dealer got a 10 in his visible card 53 times. Out of those 53 times, 35 the dealer had another 10 in his hand. In 11 situations the dealer had a 19 on his hand. If you’re a strong “basic strategy” player (i.e. You don’t do stupid things like hit 15 against a dealer’s 6, or split 10s, etc.) you will win about 43% of your hands, push 9% and lose 48%. Blackjack odds are percentage figures which represent your probability of losing or winning a hand. They can also represent the house edge or their profit margins as well. Usually probability odds don't mean much on the short term, but they clearly average out in the long term and this is why the casinos always win over the long term.

Wait for 11 consecutive losses before placing a bet?
I'd rather nail my dick to a burning building.

Minimum bet = $20
Maximum bet =$3000
First off, what are the chances of banker winning 11 times in a row? How about 20 consecutive wins?
Here is the scenario:
Bank wins 11 hands in a row.
I bet player and lose, then raise the bet according to martingale system.
Hand --- Bet
#12 ---- $20
#13 ---- $40
#14 ---- $80
#15 ---- $160
#16 ---- $320
#17 ---- $640
#18 ---- $1350
#19 ---- $3000
What are the odds of losing the entire 8 bets in the hopes that bank won't win 20 consecutive hands?
Notice that bet #18 and #19 is slightly higher
Thank you

I assume we are playing player in Baccarat, and ignoring ties.
Doesn't matter what happened on the previous results. Only the next 8 you are actually betting on. After 11 bank wins, the chance of 8 more is roughly 0.4%. After 11 bank losses, the chance of 8 more bank wins in a row is roughly 0.4%. After 5 bank wins and 6 bank losses, the chance of 8 banks is roughly 0.4%.

Blackjack Odds Calculator

You have a 99.7% chance of winning ~$20, and a 0.4% chance of losing $5610. Average loss per sequence is $3.91. Plus waiting all day for a 11 banks in a row for a chance of winning $20? 11 banks in a row is 1 in 1816 chance. At 100 hands an hour, you'll be waiting over 18 hours for this to happen. For chance to win $20.
Good luck, chuck.

First off, what are the chances of banker winning 11 times in a row? How about 20 consecutive wins?

Per 8 deck shoe (simulation results)
run of length 11 banker wins
1.8582% or about 1 in 54 shoes
(in 80 shoes it happened 2 times! High tax bracket for 2 wins)
run of 20 happened only 39 times in 1 million shoes
0.000039 or about 1 in 25,641 shoes

What are the odds of losing the entire 8 bets in the hopes that bank won't win 20 consecutive hands?
Thank you

You are welcome.
Now since you would have just witnessed 11 Banker wins in a row, the table is Rocking and big bets are riding the Banker wave, you start to bet Player.
The probability of losing the very next 8 hands is 0.50682483^8 = 0.004353746
or about 1 in 230
In 1999 I rode an 18 Banker win streak.

Blackjack Odds Sheet

I still have some winnings from that.

Plus waiting all day for a 11 banks in a row for a chance of winning $20? 11 banks in a row is 1 in 1816 chance. At 100 hands an hour, you'll be waiting over 18 hours for this to happen. For chance to win $20.
Good luck, chuck.

There are houses that have 5 to 10 Bac tables going in an eight hour period.

Blackjack Odds Explained

If you can watch all the scorecard displays or watch for a table with a lot of excitement from a Banker run, 11 Banker wins can easily happen at least one time every day.

There are houses that have 5 to 10 Bac tables going in an eight hour period.
If you can watch all the scorecard displays or watch for a table with a lot of excitement from a Banker run, 11 Banker wins can easily happen at least one time every day.

So you are going to sit all day for a chance to win $20?? And I thought MY life had too much time in it!

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Blackjack Probability and Blackjack Odds

To fully understand the game of blackjack, you must understand and master blackjack odds. It's crucial to know how the casino gains its edge and how it helps them win. It's also important to understand blackjack odds such as the odds of hitting a 10 or the odds of being dealt a blackjack. You can read over these blackjack odds charts to help understand the logistics behind blackjack.

Casino and Dealer Advantage in Blackjack

In most casino games of blackjack, the house advantage (the dealer advantage) is ~ 8%. The house gets this advantage by the dealer being the last player to act. By acting last, all other players have already made their decisions and could quite possibly bust before the dealer has his turn.

By using correct blackjack basic strategy, you can turn the casino edge in blackjack from 7%-8% down to 0.5%. If you correctly use advanced card counting techniques, you can often change blackjack odds and give yourself the advantage over the casino. Manipulating the house odds to your favor is the reason most casinos don't allow card counters to play blackjack.

Probability of Busting on a Hit

It's very important to know the probability of your hand busting when you are holding any total in the game of blackjack. The following odds chart shows the blackjack odds of busting, depending on your current hand value:

Hand Value	% Bust If You Hit
21	100%
20	92%
19	85%
18	77%
17	69%
16	62%
15	58%
14	56%
13	39%
12	31%
11 or Less	0%

Two-Card Count Frequencies

Blackjack Odds Losing 10 Hands Rowing

This interesting blackjack odds chart is the two card count frequency chart. This chart shows the percentage chance that you will be dealt a hand in each given value range. The most important frequencey to note is the chance of being dealt a natural blackjack (natural 21 value. The odds of being dealt a natural blackjack are merely 4.8%. Following this chart you will see that the most common two card hand, at 38.7%, is a hand totaling 1-16, which is considered a decision hand.

Two Card Count	% Frequency
Natural 21	4.8%
Hard Standing (17-20)	30.0 %
Decision Hands (1-16)	38.7%
No Bust	26.5%
TOTAL	100.0%

Dealer Final Hand Probabilities

This blackjack odds chart shows the dealer final hand probability. These are the percentages that the dealer will end up with a hand totaling each corresponding value (up to 16). Read over this chart to understand the odds that the dealer has to make his final hand.

Dealer Final Hand Value	%	Cumulative % Total
Natural 21	4.82%	4.83%
21 (3 or More Cards)	7.36%	12.19%
20	17.58%	29.77%
19	13.48%	43.25%
18	13.81%	57.06%
17	14.58%	71.64%
16	28.36%	100.00%

What Are Your Odds In Blackjack

Player Advantage vs. Dealer Up Card

The first two columns in this odds chart explain the dealer's chance of busting, depending on the up card that he is showing. You should note that the dealer has the highest chance of busting when he is showing a 5. The third column in this chart shows the player advantage of using basic strategy, compared to each up card the dealer is showing. You can see that the player has the highest advantage of 23.9%, when the dealer is showing a 5. When the dealer is showing any card that is 9 value or higher, the player is in the negative advantage range.

Dealer Up Card	Dealer Bust %	Player Advantage % with Basic Strategy
2	35.30%	9.8%
3	37.56%	13.4%
4	40.28%	18.0%
5	42.89%	23.2%
6	42.08%	23.9%
7	25.99%	14.3%
8	23.86%	5.4%
9	23.34%	-4.3%
J,Q,K	21.43%	-16.9%
A	11.65%	-16.0%

Blackjack Odds Chart

Effects of Removing Cards from a Deck

When looking at the odds of removing certain cards from a 52-card deck, some cards have a much greater effect on blackjack odds. To create the strongest card counting system ever invented, you would have to incorporate all of these slight and subtle differences into the numbers to be a completely accurate system.

Removing every 5 from a deck cards would make the largest impact of improving your blackjack odds, as a player. On the other hand, removing every Ace from a deck of cards would make the largest impact on improving the odds for the casino.

Card	% Effect of Removal
2	0.40%
3	0.43%
4	0.52%
5	0.67%
6	0.45%
7	0.30%
8	0.01%
9	-0.15%
10	-0.51%
A	-0.59%

See also: